UTSA -4 2.2% PLAY
Middle Tennessee was the 6th team to pull an outright upset as 18+ underdog last week as they shocked Miami for their biggest win in program history. Those teas are 0-5 ATS the next week and they aren't just not covering spreads they are not doing so by double digits. I'm not surprised by Miami after that loss at Texas AM when their coach decided to kick field goals the entire team showing no confidence in his team, and the players may have already quit on Cristabal. MTSU is not a good team in my opinion this is the same team that put up 120 yards on James Madison.
UTSA is sort of flying under the radar here at 2-2, but they've played by far the tougher schedule wiht thier opponent YPP differential at +0.83 compared to MTSU who is -0.36. Houston, Army, Texas is not an easy schedule. Frank Harris should be able to move the ball here, and UTSA's defense has struggled 93rd in YPP, but they've faced an average opponent ypp offense ranked 33rd. Here they go up against MTSU who ranks 96th, and ranks 122nd in epa run offense, and 73rd in epa pass defense and that comes against an average opponent ranking 90th in epa pass defense.
Major let down spot here for MTSU on a short week. UTSA roles big and their defense shows some improvement.
